Well, it looks like the future is now folks! What has been something of a fantasy for science fiction geeks for decades, something so farfetched that there’s no way it could become part of our reality. But then, all of a sudden, here comes Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk, centerstage, announcing that the very first self-driving car is, “very close.”
This is a familiar tune Musk’s been whistling for the past few years now but, just back in January, he stated that Tesla’s first full self-driving technology will have level five autonomy by the end of 2021. Notice how he didn’t say “could have” or “maybe,” he is officially standing his ground with end of THIS year. This could mean that the FSD automobile will be capable of driving the car anywhere, under any circumstances, with zero human interaction. Isn’t that one heck of a claim?
Some sources are even claiming that self-driving cars could make up approximately10% of the automotive market by 2030.
Imagine a scenario where you’re driving down the highway and you can safely put your feet up on the dashboard and chat with friends on your phone without fear of accidentally playing chicken with an oncoming car. Generation Z dreamed of it; Musk is making it a reality. But before we start to drool over this technological marvel ahead of us, it’s important to really balance out the pros and cons of what this technology can do for our economy.
If you’re thinking that we can just drop this kind of breakthrough in the middle of our economy and think that it won’t have a big impact… you better think again.
For one, we have to look at what it can do for road safety. Immediately, some people will worry that, without human interaction, the roads will be much safer. However, that’s not what the statistics say. In article from State Tech Magazine, research shows that 81% of car crashes result due to human error, suggesting that adding human interaction actually make the roads less safe.
They estimate that there are 5.5 million car crashes per year in the United States, equaling up to one death every 15 minutes or 88 deaths per day. Of these collisions, approximately 84% of them are the result of the driver.
This shouldn’t really surprise anyone when you think of how many people quickly let the rage of the road take over. Have you ever watched one episode of America’s Worst Driver? In all honesty, it’s actually more surprising that it’s only 81%.
You also have to take into account what this will do for the drunk driving numbers on a yearly basis. Last year, 22% of the car-related fatalities in Canada were the result of drunk driving while, in the US, it’s estimated that 29 people die in impaired collisions every day, equaling to one death every 50 minutes.
Without the need of designated drivers, these fatality numbers could plunge in the next decade or so.
Lastly, you have to consider what this will do for impaired drivers. No matter how they’re handicapped, physically, sight, hearing or anything else; driving is no longer an obstacle for them. All they have to do is dial in the location and off they go on the safest route the AI can come up with.
These points alone can show that autonomous technology can’t be ignored for the future. However, before you start welcoming these vehicles to our streets with open arms, you have to now consider the other side of the coin.
So, what can be the downside?
So, with the roads almost certain to be safer the more self-driving cars are being integrated into the market, what could be the downside?
Well, for one, the cost will be crippling to many consumers today, especially in our new social climate. According to CNBC, the job market is still struggling to return to normal after the crippling effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the United States, despite the economy regaining 12.5 million jobs since the crash in March and April of 2020, there are still approximately nine million fewer Americans working now than in February of 2020. In Canada, according to Statistics Canada, the unemployment rate is at an all-time high of 9.4%, which is even higher than the economic crash of 2008.
One article by ABC News back in 2019, quite alarmingly, suggested that a staggering 40% of Americans don’t have $400 in the bank for emergency expenses; and that was before the pandemic started! The economic result of the pandemic alone will make this a difficult innovation to integrate into the market.
It’s suggested that the technology being added to these vehicles is worth upwards to $100,000, at least. In order to add the self-driving feature on your new car, it could cost between $8,000 - $10,000 extra on top of the car’s initial price. So, with a starting price of, at the very least, $35,000 for a Tesla, you could be looking at a deep hole in your pocket.
Another major downside is that self-driving cars could mean that more than one million jobs can, and probably will, be lost. Just think, remember that approximately 81% of accident are the result of human error? Once these vehicles are officially integrated into our economy, who are you going to trust to drive you home after a night of partying and drinking? The human Uber driver or the self-driving car?
The ride might even cost less due to the company no longer having to pay a driver.
But they’re not the only ones who are in danger of losing their jobs. Truck drivers, subway operators, parking attendants, and even emergency workers would also be at risk.
But on the other side, according to an article published by CNBC three years ago, the introduction of self-driving vehicles is also creating jobs on top of killing them. Back in 2018, postings for autonomous driving jobs increased 27% due to the rise of start-ups. This could lead to the creation of 100,000 mobility industry jobs, which include 30,000 engineering jobs.
There’s only one problem with this though.
Jobs like Uber or Lyft driving are meant to be jobs for people who need money but lack the necessary time or skills for a career at the moment. A common age range for Uber drivers is between 50 – 59 years of age, people who either are retired or out of work due to health conditions or personal issues and they need steady money to keep on living.
The requirements for a job like Uber and Lyft are simple: are you a valid driver and is your car in good working condition? If you said yes to both of these, then you are qualified for this job. You don’t need any special training or schooling; but you would for tech jobs.
Maybe a few decades down the line, we’ll be more prepared for a change like this but right now, especially in the midst of pandemic, there are people out there who’s jobs are on the line and are certainly not qualified for these new jobs opening up.
It’s almost like expecting teenager working the checkout at grocery stores to suddenly learn how to fix the self-serve machines because that’s the direction these outlets are going. You simply can’t expect that kind of work ethic from someone with that level of skill.
Then There’s The Legality Of It All
So, we’ve been over this. With the introduction of self-driving cars on the road, there’s a good chance it’ll lower collision and fatality rates… but that doesn’t mean those numbers will drop right down to zero. There’s not a lot of evidence that the technology will be perfected enough to maneuver through certain hazards such as roadblocks or unique local driving laws.
There have also been past accidents involving autonomous vehicles. Back in March of 2018, a female pedestrian was hit and killed by a self-driving Uber car when walking across the street at night. This caused massive panic to the industry and even forced the company to halt self-driving car tests in all four cities they were conducting; Tempe, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Toronto.
This one case began something of a grey area for accidents involving self-driving cars; who is to blame? Do you blame the driver, the company, the manufacturer, the city, or even the victim herself?
In December of 2019, The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) released the final report crash that excoriated Uber for their poor “safety culture” but also notes that the victim, Elaine Herzberg had methamphetamines in her system. This could have impaired her ability to detect her surroundings and notice the vehicle approaching her, and the dashcam video released of the accident seemed to confirm this.
Officers in charge of the investigation were quick to blame Herzberg while police chief Sylvia Moir told a local newspaper, “It’s very clear it would have been difficult to avoid this collision… she came from the shadows right into the roadway… the driver said it was like a flash.”
According to authorities and the rules of the road, Herzberg should not have been there. If she had used the crosswalk just down the street, she probably would’ve still been alive today.
But, that’s not where this case ends.
Rafaela Vasquez, who was behind the wheel at the time of the accident, was not driving the vehicle as it was in autonomous mode. Her job was to monitor the computer that was doing the driving and take over if it was required. However, this was not the case when they checked the video from the camera on the rear-view mirror.
The footage showed Vasquez was looking down at her knees within the seconds before the crash. Data taken from her phone suggested that she was watching an episode of The Voice instead of the road. As a result, the police investigation calculated that, had Vasquez been paying attention to the road, she would have been able to avoid the collision.
Eventually, police concluded that both Herzburg and Vasquez were to blame for the incident. Vasquez should’ve been paying attention to the road and taken control of the vehicle while Herzburg should have used the crosswalk.
But, in the end, this was also a failure of the technology. The car was equipped with 360-degree sensors, along with short- and long-range cameras, a lidar laser scanner on the roof, and a GPS system. This should have given the vehicle complete awareness of its surroundings.
Unfortunately, this was not the case. In this incident, the technology did not detect an “object” until six seconds before impact. Something that human eyes could have noticed approximately 30 seconds earlier.
So, what do you think? Was this the fault of the driver, the pedestrian, or the manufacturers?
In Conclusion
There’s certainly no denying that this technology is inevitable for the market. The introduction of a fully autonomous car could be a ground-breaking achievement for, not only Tesla, but for our economy. The integration, however, is something left to be desired.
It will be a few years, or decades, before these vehicles become common within the automotive market, meaning manufacturers will have time to perfect the technology, ensuring the safety of drivers and pedestrians who share the road. This will give them ample time to ensure these vehicles have autonomous braking, self-parking, and sensors that clue a driver in to a nearby obstacle.
There are many hurdles that need to be addressed and leaped in order to ensure the safety of the driver and everyone else that shares the road. We can only hope that Elon Musk and everyone else at Tesla Motors is fully aware of these issues moving forward.
It’s going be a bumpy road ahead, the only question is: who’s going to be better equipped behind the wheel?